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Purchase Forecasting & Planning SOP

Revision: Draft
Cadence: Weekly (with Monthly & Quarterly supplements)

1. Purpose

This SOP defines the standardized workflow for forecasting and purchasing materials using a single “Proxy SKU” with a Monster BOM representing Opulo’s last quarter of sales, plus a 10% factor of safety. This ensures accurate purchasing decisions based on real consumption data and a 3-month forward forecast horizon.

2. Preconditions (Must Be Completed Before Running Forecast)

Accurate inventory is mandatory before any forecasting run. The following must be completed weekly before building the Proxy SKU or running a Material Shortage Report:

2.1 Non-Serialized Inventory Removal

Reference the SOP:
https://ohai.opulo.io/operations/managing-weekly-non-serialized-aligni-builds/

2.2 Serialized Inventory Removal

Remove shipped serialized units (LumenPnP and Control Boxes) by finalizing their respective builds.

2.3 Scrap Removal

Remove all defective or unusable material using:
Inventory → Adjustments → Scrap Material

Production must immediately report any unusual spike in scrap rates.

2.4 Inventory Day (Quarterly, Q1 & Q3 Only)

Perform full inventory audit if it is the last week of an odd-numbered quarter.
Reference the SOP:
https://ohai.opulo.io/operations/inventory-audit/

After Inventory Day:
- Update attrition multipliers per part
- Apply adjustments to forecasting coefficients as needed

3. Monster BOM Structure

Opulo uses one Proxy SKU representing all products sold in the last 3 months × 1.10.

Source of truth calculation:
- Pull all sales from the last 3 months using the Coefficient Forecast Tab
- Apply a 10% factor of safety
- Update BOM quantities for each child item accordingly

This Proxy SKU is the only BOM used for forecasting.

4. Weekly Forecasting Workflow

4.1 Update Monster BOM (Quantity Inputs)

  1. Open the Coefficient → Forecasting Tab.
  2. Refresh last-quarter sales data.
  3. Apply × 1.10 safety factor.
  4. Update the Monster BOM import sheet with new calculated quantities.

4.2 Update BOM in Aligni

  1. Navigate to:
    [Proxy SKU] → Bill of Materials → New Revision → Import BOM
    • Name the new revision based off the forecast week range it corresponds to
  2. Import the updated BOM sheet.
  3. Confirm all part quantities match “last 3 months × 1.10”.
  4. Release the new revision

5. Create a Production Build (Required Before MSR)

The Material Shortage Report must run against a real build entry for the Proxy SKU.

5.1 Create the Build

  1. Navigate to:
    Production → Create Build
  2. Select the Proxy SKU.

  3. Set:

    • Build Quantity: 1
    • Attrition: Enabled
    • Drill Down: Enabled
    • Start Date: Today
    • Completion Date: Today + 3 months

  4. Click Create Build.

5.2 Allocate Material

Inside the Build screen:

  1. Click Allocate Material.
  2. Ensure all available stock is allocated to the build.

6. Run a Material Shortage Report

6.1 Run the MSR Against the 1-pcs Build

Navigate to:

Reports → Material Shortage Report

Set filters to:

  • Build: Select the active Proxy SKU build (1 pcs)

Run the report.

6.2 Interpret the MSR

For each child item listed:

  • Identify items with negative availability
  • Identify items predicted to run out before the build completion date
  • Note manufacturer lead time, MOQ, historical slip, and vendor reliability

Any item predicted to stock-out within 3 months triggers a purchase.

7. Purchasing Actions

7.1 Create Purchase Orders for Shortfall Items

For every part predicted to stock-out:

  1. Navigate to:
    Purchasing → Create PO
  2. Select vendor
  3. Enter:
    • Delivery Date (required, must be realistic)
    • Quantity (minimum = 1 quarter’s consumption, adjusted for MOQ or long lead time)
  4. Submit PO

7.2 Receiving Requirements

Items must be recived into inventory upon delivery

  • No backdating or retroactive receipts.

8. Monthly Scrap & Corrections

Performed the first week of every month:

  1. Production exports defective/scrap logs.
  2. Ops removes the materials using:
    Inventory → Adjustments → Scrap Material
  3. Update scrap factors in forecasting if trending upward.
  4. Notify Engineering if scrap > 2× baseline.

9. Quarterly Inventory Day (Q1 & Q3)

Reference SOP:
https://ohai.opulo.io/operations/inventory-audit/ Outputs: - Updated attrition multipliers - Adjusted safety factors
- Corrections to BOM quantities

These updates feed back into next week’s Monster BOM.

10. Exception Handling

Vendor Lead Time Slips

If vendor slips by >7 days:

  • Update lead time in Aligni
  • Increase order buffer for next cycle

Scrap Spike

If scrap increases unexpectedly:

  • Ops halts purchasing for that item
  • Engineering investigates failure mode

Repeated Over-forecasting

If MSR shows overstock:

  • Re-examine sales data
  • Reduce Monster BOM quantity for that SKU